Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Prediction: In 2043 McDonald’s vs. Wal-Mart: Only One Will Still Dominate Its Market

I am making a prediction!

Today, both McDonald’s and Wal-Mart are giants, and they dominate their respective industries. Both of their stories are pretty amazing.
McDonald's vs. Wal-Mart: Which of these two will still dominate 30 years from now?
However, thirty (30) years from now only one (1) of them will STILL be dominant.

Which one, McDonald’s or Wal-Mart?

Here is my prediction.

McDonald’s will be dominant in 2043—not Wal-Mart.


Wal-Mart was founded by Sam Walton.

McDonald’s was founded (as its franchise organization—not the individual restaurant) was founded by Ray Kroc.

Sam Walton was a genius with a tremendous passion. Yet today, a living clone of him with a different name could not become a key member of its management team. This clone of Sam Walton wouldn’t be “qualified” to get that type of job.

Ray Kroc was an ambitious salesman with a vision toward bigger things. A living clone of Ray Kroc with a different name could not get that top-level management position at McDonald’s headquarters, but this close could still duplicate Ray Kroc’s success within the McDonald’s structure.

How? As a franchise owner! This clone Ray Kroc could duplicate the franchising success of the “Real Ray” by buying intelligent locations and managing the operations profitably.

This is not to say that all of the McDonald’s franchise owners are Ray Kroc “clones,” but a Ray Kroc clone could theoretically “clone” the success of the idea’s originator, regardless of what his (or her) resume says.

In other words, McDonald’s can duplicate its success INTERNALLY. Wal-Mart can become bigger, but the people steering that ship are NOTHING like Sam Walton. The best McDonald’s franchise owners could quite possibly be JUST like Ray Kroc…and succeed like him.

Key Lesson: When you build (or evaluate) companies, consider whether that path to its current greatness can be duplicated by its originator.

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